The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) kept its key policy rate at 5.75 %, alongside unchanged deposit and lending facility rates of 4.5 % and 7.0 %, citing a cautious stance amid a projected, but temporary, oil-price-driven uptick in inflation and elevated geopolitical risks. The policy rate has held at 5.75 % since September 2024, following three 25 bp cuts earlier that year. The NBS will continue to anchor the dinar through exchange-rate stability while monitoring liquidity conditions and “using all available instruments” should higher oil costs ignite broader price pressures. Year-on-year inflation eased to 2.8 % in March—below the 3 % midpoint of the 3 ± 1.5 pp target band—and is expected to rise modestly toward a peak around end-2026/early-2027 before retreating. First-quarter GDP grew 3 % y/y, buoyed by stronger manufacturing, retail trade and tourism, and supported by lending growth that accelerated to nearly 17 % y/y in March. As a net energy importer, Serbia remains vulnerable to the recent surge in global oil prices, which is already lifting domestic fuel costs and could pass through to food and other prices, while Middle East tensions threaten shipping, supply chains and investor sentiment. The Board reaffirmed its readiness to tighten policy if second-round effects on inflation expectations emerge.
National Bank of Serbia 2026-05-07
National Bank of Serbia keeps key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%
The National Bank of Serbia left its key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, with deposit and lending facility rates held at 4.5% and 7.0%, citing precaution amid oil-price-driven inflation risks and elevated geopolitical tensions. With March inflation at 2.8% versus the 3 ± 1.5 pp target midpoint and first-quarter GDP up 3% year on year, the Board pledged to maintain dinar stability and stands ready to tighten policy if energy costs trigger second-round price effects.