The National Bank of Serbia published Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković’s address at the 33rd Kopaonik Business Forum, summarising 2025 macro-financial developments and the central bank’s February projections. The update emphasised inflation remaining within the target band, a policy preference for a relatively stable dinar against the euro, and the use of prudential and other tools alongside the benchmark policy rate, supported by high foreign exchange and gold buffers. The speech cited end-December 2025 inflation of 2.7% and January inflation of 2.4%, with 2025 core inflation slowing to 4% and inflation expectations anchored within the 3% ± 1.5 percentage points target. It reported a 0.2% change in the dinar-euro exchange rate in 2025 and noted that the central bank was a net buyer of foreign currency of EUR 11.3 billion from 2017 to end-2025, while gross foreign exchange reserves covered 6.8 months of imports; gold reserves were reported at 53.4 tonnes valued at EUR 7.5 billion, over 25% of total reserves. On domestic conditions, the governor pointed to 2025 gross domestic product growth slowing to 2% (from 3.9% in 2024), credit growth led by investment loans to corporates (up 12.8%) and housing loans to households (up 19%), and a non-performing loan ratio of 2.1%; the address also referenced caps on loan interest rates for households and a government decree limiting wholesale and retail trade margins to 20% for six months. In the February baseline, inflation is projected to remain within target in 2026 and over the medium term, while gross domestic product growth is projected at 3.5% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, with risks framed as potential deviations of ±0.5 percentage points for inflation and ±0.2 percentage points for growth versus the baseline. The outlook included a current account deficit share of gross domestic product below 5.5% in 2026 and below 4% in 2027, and medium-term foreign direct investment inflows of 4–5% of gross domestic product; SEPA payments were described as expected to become available through Serbian banks “soon,” without additional obligations for citizens.
National Bank of Serbia 2026-03-02
National Bank of Serbia governor outlines 2026–27 macro projections and highlights record gold and foreign exchange reserves
The National Bank of Serbia's Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković addressed the 33rd Kopaonik Business Forum, highlighting 2025 macro-financial developments and February projections. Key points included inflation within the target band, a stable dinar-euro exchange rate, and robust foreign exchange and gold reserves. The 2026 outlook projects inflation within target, GDP growth at 3.5%, and a current account deficit below 5.5% of GDP.