Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases December 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations with flat one-year inflation expectations and lower job loss and job-finding probabilities

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data published results from its December 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing unchanged short-term inflation expectations, higher medium-term expectations, and lower longer-term expectations. Labor market sentiment softened, with respondents reporting lower perceived probabilities of job loss and voluntary job separation alongside a sharp decline in perceived chances of finding a job after a job loss; spending growth expectations rose even as income growth expectations edged down. Median expected inflation held at 3.0% one year ahead, rose to 3.0% at the three-year horizon (from 2.6%), and fell to 2.7% at the five-year horizon (from 2.9%), while inflation uncertainty increased at the one- and three-year horizons and declined at five years. In the labor market, mean unemployment expectations fell to 34.6%, expected earnings growth eased to 2.8%, and the mean perceived probability of losing a job dropped to 11.9% while voluntary separation fell to 18.2%, but the probability of finding a job after a loss declined to 50.2%. On household finances, expected income growth declined to 2.8% and spending growth expectations increased to 4.8%; perceived and expected credit access deteriorated and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment rose to 14.2%.