European Central Bank reviews five years of its Survey of Monetary Analysts and says it has become a core tool for monetary policy assessment

The European Central Bank has published a review of its Survey of Monetary Analysts, describing the survey as a core input into its monetary policy assessment and a key source of information on financial market expectations for the euro area. The article says the survey is used both to inform preparation for Governing Council meetings and to analyse how market participants form and revise expectations on inflation, growth and policy rates. It concludes that Survey of Monetary Analysts expectations are broadly consistent with macroeconomic fundamentals and simple policy benchmarks, while offering information on disagreement and risk that cannot be derived from market prices alone. The review highlights how the survey has been expanded and refined since its pilot launch in 2019 and full operationalisation in 2021. The panel grew from 30 participants in 2021 to 75 in 2026, with response and questionnaire-completeness rates both around 90% in 2025, up from 85% and 76% respectively in 2021. Its composition has shifted to a more balanced mix of banks and non-bank financial institutions, with non-banks now accounting for 47% of panellists, and the questionnaire was revised in June 2022 to improve clarity and consistency. On the analytical side, the ECB says median rate expectations and their distribution are used as a cross-check against market indicators and Eurosystem or ECB staff projections. The article also finds that inflation forecast errors were large before mid-2023 but fell sharply as inflation normalised, with Survey of Monetary Analysts forecasts at times slightly more accurate than staff projections and inflation fixings in that later phase, while GDP forecast performance was more mixed.