South African Reserve Bank reports leading business cycle indicator up 2.4% in March 2026

The South African Reserve Bank published its latest composite business cycle indicators for South Africa, showing the composite leading indicator rose by 2.4% in March 2026. The increase reflected gains in six of the seven available component series, which more than offset a decline in the leading indicator for South Africa’s major trading-partner countries. The composite coincident indicator fell by 0.1% in February 2026, while the composite lagging indicator rose by 0.6% in the same month. The largest positive contributions to the March leading indicator came from faster growth in real M1 and a wider spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills. Other positive contributors were export commodity prices, approved building plans, new passenger vehicle sales and job advertisements. The coincident indicator weakened because of lower manufacturing capacity utilisation and a decline in the industrial production index. Some leading-indicator components were unavailable, including the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, BER measures of domestic manufacturing orders and average hours worked, and gross operating surplus as a share of gross domestic product. The Reserve Bank noted that the composite indicators are revised continuously as underlying component data are updated. The next release is scheduled for 23 June 2026.