The Riksbank published a speech by First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge on how AI could affect the labour market, the macroeconomy and monetary policy. Her main conclusion was that AI has not yet penetrated the labour market and productivity strongly enough to affect current monetary policy, although developments are moving quickly and need close monitoring over the coming years. Bunge said evidence so far points to a "no hire, no fire" pattern in both the United States and Sweden, where young people in AI-exposed occupations are not being laid off but new entrants are finding it harder to get jobs. She also outlined four channels through which AI could influence policy rates in different directions: lower costs from productivity gains, changes in the neutral interest rate, stronger short-term demand from AI-related investment, and risks from an AI-driven equity bubble. Riksbank business survey results show almost all companies now use AI in some way, up from 20 per cent when similar questions on digitalisation were asked in 2018, but most still report limited operational effects and expect the impact to grow over the next five years. Household evidence cited in the speech likewise points to both efficiency gains from AI use and concern about job loss. Separately, in comments linked to the speech, Bunge said the war in the Middle East had pushed up prices for oil, gas, jet fuel and fertilisers, which would raise inflation relative to what it would otherwise have been. She said the Riksbank should watch for spillover effects, but saw little to gain from responding pre-emptively to the current supply shocks given low inflation, spare capacity in the Swedish economy and the credibility of the inflation target.
Riksbank2026-05-19
Sweden's Riksbank says AI has not yet affected current monetary policy and flags tougher labour market entry for young workers
The Riksbank published a speech by First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge on how artificial intelligence could affect the labour market, macroeconomy and monetary policy, concluding that AI has not yet materially influenced productivity or policy but warrants close monitoring. Bunge highlighted a “no hire, no fire” pattern in AI‑exposed jobs and noted that firms’ AI use is widespread but operational effects remain limited. She also said the war in the Middle East has raised energy and fertiliser prices and will lift inflation relative to baseline, but argued against a pre‑emptive monetary policy response given low inflation and the credibility of the inflation target.