The South African Reserve Bank published its composite business cycle indicators showing the composite leading indicator increased for a third consecutive month, rising by 1.6% in August 2025. The composite coincident indicator rose by 0.4% in July 2025, while the composite lagging indicator edged down by 0.1% in July 2025. The August rise in the leading indicator reflected increases in 8 of 10 available component series, led by more approved residential building plans and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of job advertisement space. Other positive contributors included export commodity prices, new passenger vehicle sales, selected Bureau for Economic Research manufacturing measures, real M1 growth, and the leading indicator for major trading-partner countries. The only negative contributors were a deterioration in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index and a narrowing of the spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills, while gross operating surplus as a share of gross domestic product was unavailable; the indicators are revised continuously as underlying component data are revised. The next release is scheduled for 25 November 2025 at 09:00 A.M.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-10-21
South African Reserve Bank reports leading business cycle indicator up 1.6% in August 2025
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 1.6% increase in the composite leading indicator for August 2025, marking the third consecutive monthly rise. This was driven by gains in residential building plans, job advertisement growth, and export commodity prices, among others. The composite coincident indicator rose by 0.4% in July, while the lagging indicator decreased by 0.1%.