National Bank of Moldova finds no excessive systemic risk in its Q4 2025 financial stability assessment

The National Bank of Moldova published its Financial Stability Assessment Report for Q4 2025, concluding that conditions at the end of the quarter did not indicate systemic vulnerabilities or an excessive level of systemic risk and that supervised financial institutions show an adequate capacity to absorb shocks. The financial stress index stood at 0.39, below the 0.52 stress threshold, while the banking sector vulnerability measure was -0.43, also below its vulnerability threshold. Direct contagion risk was assessed as low, reflecting that most interbank placements are held with banks abroad; the interbank network was described as relatively concentrated but without signs of systemic tension, and no cases of heightened sectoral credit concentration were identified. Exposure to non-bank financial institutions increased by MDL 1.9 million (0.1%) quarter on quarter to MDL 3,759.0 million, equivalent to 3.6% of banks’ total portfolios. Banks reported a slight easing in credit standards and a slight increase in credit demand for both non-financial corporations and households; new mortgage lending flows fell to MDL 2,754.7 million (down 12.7% year on year and 5.5% quarter on quarter), while new consumer lending flows rose 16.7% year on year but fell 8.5% quarter on quarter to MDL 4,231.1 million. Past-due loans (30+ days) increased for both corporates (to MDL 859.1 million) and households (to MDL 631.0 million) while their shares stayed at 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively; the non-performing loan ratio fell to 3.9% for corporates and rose to 4.3% for households. Credit risk remained the main risk, with sensitivity analysis pointing to real-estate-related and trade lending as the biggest potential drivers of own-funds ratio erosion in an NPL-up scenario, while liquidity risk was mitigated by solid liquid-asset buffers.