The National Bank of Ukraine held an online meeting with leaders of Ukrainian companies participating in its business outlook surveys, using the session to explain its updated macroeconomic outlook and policy stance and to gather feedback from the business community. The meeting brought together 129 representatives of 120 companies and covered the economy’s current conditions, the National Bank of Ukraine’s revised forecast, monetary and exchange rate policy, international cooperation, foreign exchange liberalization, and war risk insurance. Inflation slowed to 11.9% year on year in September, and the central bank projected inflation at 9.2% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and at the 5% target by end-2027, while revising its 2025 GDP growth forecast down to 1.9% and projecting 2% growth in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027. It kept the key policy rate unchanged at 15.5% amid higher inflation risks and indicated that rate cuts could start in Q1 2026, while remaining prepared to delay easing if risks intensify. Under the managed exchange rate flexibility regime, the hryvnia’s U.S. dollar rate is driven by the market FX demand-to-supply balance, with interventions aimed at smoothing excessive movements and covering the private sector’s structural FX deficit; the central bank assessed reserves as sufficient for FX market sustainability. On liberalization, it reported that since May 2024 more than 400 companies have paid interest on “old” external loans and more than 870 have repatriated “new” dividends, with a focus on expanding “stimulating liberalization” for new capital inflows; it also noted work led by the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture on a short-term war-risk coverage solution, with government aid flows to be allocated starting next year and administered by the Export Credit Agency. The National Bank of Ukraine said it will continue holding regular meetings with survey participants and invited businesses to take part in its online surveys via the Monthly Business Outlook Surveys mobile app.
National Bank of Ukraine 2025-11-03
National Bank of Ukraine briefs business survey participants on revised macro forecast and keeps key policy rate at 15.5%
The National Bank of Ukraine held an online meeting with business leaders to discuss its updated macroeconomic outlook, policy stance, and gather feedback. Inflation slowed to 11.9% in September, with projections of 9.2% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026, while the key policy rate remains at 15.5% amid inflation risks. The bank plans to maintain regular meetings and encourages participation in its Monthly Business Outlook Surveys.