Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases April 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations with three-year inflation expectations rising to 3.2% and household outlook weakening

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data published the April 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing unchanged short-term inflation expectations, higher medium-term expectations, and lower longer-term expectations alongside a broad deterioration in households’ labour market and financial outlook. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations held at 3.6%, three-year-ahead expectations rose to 3.2% (the highest since July 2022), and five-year-ahead expectations fell to 2.7%, while inflation uncertainty increased at all three horizons. Home price growth expectations increased to 3.3%, and year-ahead expected price changes rose for gas (3.5%), medical care (8.7%), college (9.1%), and rent (9.0%), while expected food price growth edged down to 5.1%. On the labour market, expected earnings growth fell to 2.5%, the mean probability that unemployment will be higher in a year increased to 44.1% (highest since April 2020), and the perceived probability of finding a job within three months if displaced dropped to 49.2% (lowest since March 2021). In household finance, expected income growth declined to 2.6% (lowest since April 2021) as expected spending growth rose to 5.2%; perceptions of current and year-ahead household financial conditions deteriorated sharply, and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment increased to 13.9%. The survey was fielded from April 1 through April 30, 2025.