Central Bank of Nigeria publishes April 2025 inflation expectations survey showing high inflation perceptions and mostly stable near-term outlook

The Central Bank of Nigeria released its April 2025 Inflation Expectations Survey Report, finding that most respondents still view current inflation as high and, overall, expect inflation to remain broadly unchanged in the next month, with expectations skewing more towards increases over the next three to six months. Perception of current inflation as high eased to 69.4% in April from 72.7% in March. Large firms were most likely to perceive inflation as high (77.6%), while medium-sized businesses had the highest share reporting inflation as moderate (22.5%). Energy and transportation costs were the leading cited drivers of inflation perception (business scores 91.2 and 86.8; household scores 84.5 and 85.6), followed by the exchange rate (87.8; 81.5) and interest rates (85.3; 79.3). On expectations, 48.9% anticipated inflation would remain the same next month (35.9% expected an increase and 15.3% a decrease); over the next three months, 41.8% expected an increase, rising to 43.5% over the next six months. Households were more likely than businesses to expect higher inflation over the next six months (50.6% versus 37.3%). The report also indicates that both households and businesses largely anticipate increased expenditure over the next six months, with a slight moderation over longer horizons as the share expecting increases declines by around 3 to 5 percentage points between the next-month and next-six-month outlook.