The Czech National Bank published its August survey of 14 domestic and two foreign analysts, showing that most expect the two-week repo rate to remain at 3.75% after the forthcoming monetary policy meeting and at the one-year horizon. The one-year inflation forecast held at 2.6%, while the three-year estimate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 2.1%, closer to the central bank’s target. Five respondents expect a 25-basis-point rate increase at the next meeting, while 12 expect the rate to be unchanged in one year. Analysts expect inflation to move gradually toward 3% in the coming months, driven by food, fuel and energy prices, with restrictive monetary policy and a strong koruna moderating the pressure. The 2026 gross domestic product growth forecast declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.0%, while the 2027 forecast remained at 2.4%. Nominal wage growth forecasts rose to 7.0% for 2026 and 5.7% for 2027, while exchange rate projections remained broadly stable at CZK 24.26 per euro in one month and CZK 24.15 in one year.
2026-08-24Czech National Bank
Czech National Bank survey shows most analysts expect rates to remain at 3.75%, three-year inflation outlook slips to 2.1%
The Czech National Bank’s August analyst survey shows most respondents expect the two-week repo rate to remain at 3.75% at the next meeting and in one year. The three-year inflation forecast eased to 2.1%, while the one-year estimate stayed at 2.6%. Analysts lowered their 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% and raised their nominal wage growth forecast to 7.0%.