The European Central Bank’s Governing Council left the deposit facility, main refinancing and marginal lending rates unchanged at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40% respectively, judging that existing settings remain consistent with its aim of stabilising inflation at the 2% medium-term target while it gauges the impact of the Middle East war, which it warns creates upside risks to inflation via higher energy prices and downside risks to growth. The policy stance has been steady since the 25-basis-point rate cut delivered in June 2025. The operating framework is unchanged: the deposit rate remains the key policy instrument and the APP and PEPP portfolios continue to run off as reinvestments have ceased. Staff now project headline inflation at 2.6% in 2026, before easing to 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028; core inflation is seen at 2.3%, 2.2% and 2.1% over the same years. Real GDP growth has been revised down to 0.9% for 2026 but is expected to firm to 1.4% by 2028, with low unemployment, solid private balance sheets and higher defence and infrastructure spending providing support. The Council reiterates that policy decisions will remain data-dependent and taken meeting by meeting, with no pre-set rate path and full readiness to adjust all instruments, including the Transmission Protection Instrument, to safeguard price stability and transmission.
European Central Bank 2026-03-19
ECB holds deposit (2.00%), main refinancing (2.15%) and marginal lending (2.40%) rates unchanged
European Central Bank left the deposit facility, main refinancing and marginal lending rates at 2.00%, 2.15% and 2.40%, keeping June’s stance while monitoring Middle East conflict risks to inflation and growth. APP and PEPP run-offs continue and staff now forecast headline inflation falling from 2.6% in 2026 to 2.0% in 2027, with the Council staying data-dependent.