The South African Reserve Bank published its composite business cycle indicators for South Africa, reporting that the composite leading indicator fell by 0.2% in February 2025, the composite coincident indicator rose by 0.2% in January 2025, and the composite lagging indicator fell by 0.8% in January 2025. The February decline in the leading indicator reflected decreases in seven of the ten available component series, outweighing increases in two components and one unchanged component. The largest negative contributors were fewer approved residential building plans and a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of new passenger vehicle sales, while the main positive contributors were a wider interest rate spread (10-year government bonds minus 91-day Treasury bills) and a higher US-dollar-based export commodity price index. On an index basis (2019 = 100), the leading indicator was 114.2 in February (12-month change 2.4%), the coincident indicator 96.0 in January (12-month change -0.1%), and the lagging indicator 106.9 in January (12-month change -2.8%). The next release is scheduled for 27 May 2025 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-04-22
South African Reserve Bank reports February decline in the composite leading business cycle indicator and January rise in the coincident indicator
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 0.2% decline in the composite leading indicator for February 2025, driven by decreases in seven of ten component series, including fewer approved residential building plans and slower growth in new passenger vehicle sales. The composite coincident indicator rose by 0.2% in January 2025, while the composite lagging indicator fell by 0.8%. Key positive contributors to the leading indicator were a wider interest rate spread and a higher US-dollar-based export commodity price index.