The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published its July 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing that median one-year inflation expectations declined 0.1 percentage point to 3.6%, while three-year and five-year expectations remained unchanged at 3.3% and 3.0%, respectively. Labor market expectations were mixed, while households reported improved views of their current and future financial situations and future credit availability. The probability that unemployment will be higher in a year rose 1.1 percentage points to 42.8%, and the perceived probability of job loss edged up to 14.2%. However, the probability of finding a new job after losing one increased 1.3 percentage points to 46.2%. Although households viewed current credit access as more difficult, fewer expected it to tighten further, while the probability of missing a minimum debt payment rose 1.2 percentage points to 12.0%.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York2026-08-07
Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey shows slight decline in short-term inflation expectations and mixed labor outlook
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s July survey showed one-year inflation expectations easing to 3.6%, with medium- and longer-term expectations unchanged. Labor expectations were mixed, while household financial sentiment and expectations for future credit availability improved.