Federal Reserve Board staff published a FEDS Notes analysis of how the AI infrastructure buildout is affecting global trade, concluding that rapid data center investment has boosted international demand for critical inputs and intermediate goods since early 2025. The note highlights the scale of the buildout, including expectations that U.S. data-center spending would exceed USD 0.5 trillion in 2025, and documents planned expansions in AI-related computing capacity through 2030. To better measure AI-driven trade, the analysis proposes a narrow definition focused on three Harmonized System (HS-6) categories covering servers, graphics cards, and related parts (8471.50, 8471.80, and 8473.30). Using this classification, trade in these goods exceeded USD 272 billion in the first half of 2025, up 65% from the first half of 2024; AI-related imports more than doubled from 2024 levels, with growth led by the United States and an early-2025 surge in China that reversed in the second quarter of 2025 amid geopolitical tensions and restrictions on exports of high-tech goods. The paper also links U.S.-led demand to export gains in supplier economies, noting that Taiwan’s AI-related exports to the United States reached roughly 14% of GDP in the second quarter of 2025, while Mexico’s exports are overwhelmingly U.S.-directed and Vietnam’s growth is more broad-based. Looking ahead, the authors expect AI-related trade to remain a notable driver of merchandise trade as AI infrastructure investment scales, while flagging measurement challenges stemming from HS-6 aggregation, embedded components that may not be recorded under GPU-related codes, and inconsistent national reporting across jurisdictions.
Federal Reserve Board 2026-02-13
Federal Reserve Board research finds AI infrastructure boom drove a 65% rise in trade in servers and graphics cards
Federal Reserve Board staff released a FEDS Notes analysis on AI infrastructure's impact on global trade, noting increased demand for critical inputs since early 2025. U.S. data-center spending exceeded USD 0.5 trillion in 2025. The analysis proposes a narrow trade measurement definition focused on specific Harmonized System categories. AI-related trade surged, with the U.S. and China leading growth, and supplier economies like Taiwan and Mexico benefiting from increased exports.