European Central Bank publishes July 2026 Survey of Monetary Analysts on rate path balance sheet and inflation expectations

The European Central Bank published the July 2026 Survey of Monetary Analysts, asking respondents for updated expectations on the future path of ECB policy rates, money market conditions, Eurosystem asset holdings, refinancing operations and the euro area macroeconomic outlook. The document is a survey questionnaire, not a policy decision or an ECB forecast release. On monetary policy and markets, the questionnaire requests expected levels for the deposit facility rate, main refinancing operations rate, marginal lending facility rate, €STR and three-month EURIBOR across Governing Council meetings from July 2026 to June 2027, with quarter-end and long-run expectations extending through 2029. It also asks for probability distributions around possible changes in the deposit facility rate at the July and September 2026 meetings, one-year and two-year expectations for 10-year €STR-based overnight index swaps and major euro area sovereign bond yields, expected APP and PEPP bond stocks, the likelihood and timing of a first activation of the Transmission Protection Instrument, and projected outstanding amounts of main refinancing operations and longer-term refinancing operations. For the macro outlook, the survey seeks quarterly forecasts for euro area real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, HICP inflation and HICP inflation excluding food and energy through 2029, together with views on the current output gap and when it closes. It also asks for probabilities of annual HICP inflation being below or above 2% in 2026 to 2029, a long-run inflation probability distribution, and qualitative assessments of risks around growth and inflation forecasts.