The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development published its interim Economic Outlook, projecting global gross domestic product growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. Middle East energy supply disruptions, higher commodity prices and interest rates are expected to constrain near-term activity, while artificial intelligence-related investment, production and trade provide support. G20 headline inflation is forecast to rise to 4.1% in 2026 before easing to 3.6% in 2027 as energy prices moderate and tighter monetary policy limits broader price pressures. The OECD urged central banks to keep inflation expectations anchored and adjust policy further if price pressures broaden or growth weakens substantially. It also called for stronger supervision and regulation of nonbank financial intermediaries and crypto assets, targeted energy support with clear expiry mechanisms, and credible multiyear fiscal consolidation. Key downside risks include prolonged energy disruptions, weather-related food supply shocks, further increases in sovereign bond yields and weaker-than-expected returns on AI investment. A combined downside scenario could reduce global growth by 0.7 percentage points and raise inflation by 1.1 percentage points in 2027.
2026-09-23OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development projects 2.9% global growth in 2026 as energy shocks lift inflation
The OECD projects global growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027, with energy disruptions lifting inflation while AI-related activity supports demand. It expects G20 inflation to ease from 4.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027. Central banks should keep expectations anchored, while governments should target energy support and address fiscal and financial stability risks.