The Central Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 14%, pausing rate cuts after price growth accelerated in July and August. Fuel prices initially drove the increase, but higher business costs, inflation expectations and demand have begun to spread the effects across goods and services. Measures of underlying inflation rose to an estimated annualized range of 5% to 6% in July. The economy continued to grow moderately, while credit activity remained elevated and corporate lending accelerated in July. The central bank assessed monetary conditions as moderately tight but said real tightness had eased slightly since July. It will assess whether underlying inflation resumes its decline and consider updated fiscal policy parameters expected by the end of September before making further decisions. Proinflationary risks have increased and continue to outweigh disinflationary risks, reflecting the possibility of a stronger fiscal impulse, faster lending growth, supply constraints, high inflation expectations and labor market pressures. The future rate path will seek to reduce inflation to 4% in 2027 and stabilize it at that target thereafter.
2026-09-11Central Bank of Russia
Central Bank of Russia holds key rate at 14% as inflation risks rise
The Central Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14%, pausing cuts as summer price growth spread beyond fuel and underlying inflation rose to an estimated annualized range of 5% to 6%. Elevated corporate lending, high inflation expectations and pending fiscal projections reinforced the decision. Future policy will aim to bring inflation down to 4% in 2027.