The Bank of Finland’s Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) published an updated forecast for China, expecting growth to keep slowing over the next two years and to fall gradually to around 3% in 2027 as the export contribution fades. BOFIT links the moderation to weakening external demand, slower growth in fixed investment and insufficient strengthening in domestic consumption, alongside structural headwinds including a shrinking and ageing population. While China’s official statistics show GDP growth of slightly over 5% this year, BOFIT’s alternative GDP calculation suggests actual growth is about one percentage point lower; it expects growth to converge toward around 3% by the end of the forecast period and then remain near that pace longer term. The institute also highlights rising uncertainty over the reliability of China’s economic data and a more constrained environment for economic debate, which it argues increases the risk of policy mistakes.
Bank of Finland 2025-11-10
Bank of Finland’s BOFIT projects China’s GDP growth to slow to around 3% in 2027
BOFIT forecasts China's growth to slow to 3% by 2027 due to weakening demand and structural challenges. Their alternative GDP calculation shows current growth is about one point lower than official figures. They also note rising uncertainty over China's data reliability and a constrained environment for economic debate, increasing policy mistake risks.