Portugal's Insurance and Pension Funds Supervisory Authority (ASF) has published the results of its RiskOutlook survey, compiling insurance undertakings’ (ES) and pension fund management entities’ (EGFP) self-assessments of the risks they face, with a reference date of 30 June 2025. The results point to macroeconomic and geopolitical risks as the most likely to become material for insurers, while pension fund managers also highlight interest rate and equity risks. The survey was prepared in July and August 2025 and therefore does not reflect risk perceptions arising from more recent events, including a series of storms and the escalation of events in the Middle East, including the war in Iran. ASF presents the findings in a dashboard format on a dedicated webpage, structured into “Key Highlights” and a “Global Risk Assessment” covering both overall and firm-level self-assessments. Over a one-year horizon, insurers project a deterioration in several risks, most notably geopolitical, cyber and international macroeconomic risks; the risk linked to the evolution of production was identified as the most relevant in both life and non-life business, and an intensification of emerging risks is anticipated over the next 12 months. For the pensions sector, EGFP identified geopolitical risk, the international macroeconomic environment and interest rate risk as those with the greatest potential impact, and over a 12-month horizon they highlighted geopolitical, international macroeconomic and equity risks as most relevant.
Portuguese Insurance Regulator (ASF) 2026-04-10
Portugal's Insurance and Pension Funds Supervisory Authority publishes RiskOutlook survey results on insurers’ and pension funds’ key risks
Portugal's Insurance and Pension Funds Supervisory Authority (ASF) has published RiskOutlook survey results summarising insurers’ and pension fund managers’ self-assessed risk exposures as at 30 June 2025. Insurers see macroeconomic and geopolitical risks as most likely to become material, with expectations of rising geopolitical, cyber and international macroeconomic risks, while pension fund managers highlight geopolitical, international macroeconomic, interest rate and equity risks as having the greatest potential impact over a 12‑month horizon.