De Nederlandsche Bank says Dutch inflation remains concentrated in fuel and travel costs, with limited broad-based spillover so far

De Nederlandsche Bank published an analysis in its Inflation in focus series saying recent inflation in the Netherlands is not yet broad-based. Since March 2026, price increases have been concentrated mainly in fuel-related products and services, especially fuels and lubricants, package holidays, accommodation and transport services, reflecting higher oil prices rather than a generalised rise across the consumer basket. The analysis says not all prices are responding in the same way. Gas and electricity prices have been below their level a year earlier since February, as many households are still benefiting from energy contracts signed before the war in the Middle East, when tariffs were falling. Food inflation has also remained relatively limited so far, helped by strong harvests earlier in the year and high global grain inventories, while the impact of higher energy and fertiliser costs is expected to feed through only with a delay. Industrial goods and other services have shown much weaker price increases, which DNB says points to limited second-round effects from higher energy prices, including via wages. DNB says the risk remains that inflation could broaden over time. That could happen as households move onto higher energy tariffs when existing contracts expire, as higher energy and fertiliser costs feed into food prices, and if persistent geopolitical tensions disrupt trade routes, raise input and transport costs, and trigger stronger wage responses. The central bank therefore says inflation developments should continue to be monitored closely.