The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released results from The CFO Survey, produced with Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, indicating that U.S. CFOs remain most concerned about tariffs and expect price growth above 3 percent in 2026 alongside moderate gains in employment and overall economic activity. The survey also points to widespread increases in artificial intelligence (AI) spending, with a particularly sharp pickup expected among small firms. The median firm expects prices for its products and services to rise 3.5 percent in 2026. Median expected full-time employment growth is 1.7 percent, with 15 percent of companies planning to reduce headcount, 26 percent expecting no change, and 59 percent planning to expand; wages are expected to rise by about 3 percent. CFOs forecast real GDP growth of 1.9 percent in 2026, while the CFO Optimism Index for the overall economy fell to 60.2 from 62.9 last quarter, and own-firm optimism declined among large companies. AI investment was reported by 78 percent of large companies (500 or more employees) during 2025 versus 48 percent of small companies, with approximately 80 percent of small firms expecting to invest in AI in 2026; CFOs anticipate productivity and decision-making benefits but little impact on headcount or measurable cost savings in 2026.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 2025-12-17
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond publishes CFO Survey showing 3.5 percent median price increases in 2026 and accelerating AI investment
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's CFO Survey, with Duke University and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, reveals U.S. CFOs' concerns over tariffs and anticipates price growth above 3 percent in 2026, with moderate employment and economic activity gains. AI spending is expected to rise significantly, especially among small firms, with 80 percent planning investments in 2026. The survey also notes a decline in the CFO Optimism Index and forecasts real GDP growth of 1.9 percent in 2026.