National Bank of Kazakhstan keeps base rate at 18.0% and signals it may hold through the first half of 2026

The National Bank of Kazakhstan’s Monetary Policy Committee kept the base rate at 18.0% per annum, with an interest rate corridor of plus or minus 1 percentage point. It indicated the base rate is highly likely to remain at its current level until the end of the first half of 2026, citing external challenges and uncertainty around the impact of tax system changes and a rebound in fuel tariffs and fuel prices from the second quarter of 2026. Inflation at end-2025 was 12.3%, with food inflation (13.5%) a major contributor, reflecting higher meat and oil prices linked to rising production costs and strong exports. Non-food inflation eased slightly to 11.1% amid a stronger exchange rate, while inflation in paid services slowed to 12.0% after administrative measures reduced regulated housing and communal services tariffs. Monthly inflation in December 2025 rose to 0.9%, with core inflation at 0.8%; inflation was described as being driven by persistent domestic demand exceeding supply capacity and by secondary effects from tariff reform and fuel market liberalization. One-year inflation expectations were 14.7%, and professional participants’ expectations for 2026 increased slightly to 10.8%; 2025 economic growth was reported at 6.5%. Disinflation factors cited included moderately tight monetary conditions, slower growth in unsecured consumer lending issuance (7.3% over 11 months of 2025), reduced excess liquidity through a higher ETRT, operations to “circumvent” gold purchases, and a stronger tenge. The next scheduled base-rate decision will be announced on March 6, 2026 at 12:00 Astana time.