The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data published the June 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing households’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down while medium- and longer-term expectations were unchanged, alongside improved expectations for unemployment, job loss, credit access, and overall household financial situations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell 0.2 percentage point to 3.0%, with three-year and five-year expectations steady at 3.0% and 2.6% respectively, and disagreement and inflation uncertainty declining at shorter horizons. Commodity price expectations rose for gas (4.2%), medical care (9.3%), college education (9.1%) and rent (9.1%), while food price expectations held at 5.5% and home price growth expectations stayed at 3.0%. Labor-market expectations improved on unemployment and job-loss risk, with the mean probability the unemployment rate will be higher in a year falling to 39.7% and the perceived probability of losing a job dropping to 14.0%, while the perceived chance of finding a job if displaced declined to 49.6%. In household finance, expected income growth increased to 2.9% as spending growth expectations eased to 4.8%, the perceived likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment fell to 12.0%, and respondents became more optimistic about year-ahead finances and credit availability.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2025-07-08
Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports one-year inflation expectations eased to 3.0% as household financial expectations improved
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s June 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations indicates a decline in one-year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.0%, with medium- and longer-term expectations unchanged. Labor-market outlook improved, with reduced unemployment and job-loss risk perceptions. Household financial optimism rose, with increased expected income growth and better credit access.