The Reserve Bank of Australia published an abridged transcript of Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s panel remarks at the Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum on how central banks should conduct monetary policy in an environment of more frequent supply shocks and rising geopolitical and economic fragmentation. He set out a framework focused on diagnosing shocks, using the flexibility in inflation targeting without losing control of inflation expectations, and communicating the limits of monetary policy. Hauser pointed to a widening range of supply shocks, including COVID, Ukraine, Iran, climate and demographics, alongside potentially positive shocks such as artificial intelligence, and noted the analytical difficulty of separating supply from demand given central bank models are better suited to demand dynamics. He argued policy cannot materially offset first-round inflation effects from supply disruptions but must assess medium-term impacts and risks of de-anchoring expectations, with starting conditions and exchange rate and capital flow dynamics shaping the trade-offs. On financial stability, he downplayed the Iran shock as Australia’s main near-term risk, citing rebuilt household and corporate balance sheets and a well-capitalised, liquid banking system, while flagging vulnerabilities from fragmentation such as separate pools of capital, payment system “walled gardens”, regulatory divergence, sanctions and cross-border contagion that could undermine hard-won crisis-management and resolution cooperation. He also cautioned that non-bank financial institutions can generate systemic stress, referencing the United Kingdom’s liability-driven investment episode as evidence that risks can emerge abruptly.
Reserve Bank of Australia 2026-04-17
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser outlines monetary policy approach to adverse supply shocks and fragmentation
The Reserve Bank of Australia published an abridged transcript of Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser’s remarks on how central banks should conduct monetary policy amid more frequent supply shocks and rising geopolitical and economic fragmentation. He outlined a framework centred on diagnosing shocks, using flexibility within inflation targeting while preserving expectations, and clearly communicating monetary policy limits, while stressing challenges in distinguishing supply from demand shocks and the need to focus on medium-term inflation. Hauser also assessed financial stability risks, noting Australia’s resilience but warning that fragmentation and non-bank financial institutions can generate abrupt systemic stress and undermine cross-border crisis-management cooperation.