The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing households raised inflation expectations at the one-year and three-year horizons while leaving five-year expectations unchanged. The update also points to a sharp increase in expected gas price growth and a deterioration in perceptions and expectations of households’ financial situations. Median inflation expectations rose to 3.4% one year ahead (+0.4 percentage point) and 3.1% three years ahead (+0.1), and held at 3.0% five years ahead, while inflation uncertainty increased at all horizons. Median year-ahead gas price change expectations increased to 9.4% (+5.3), the highest since March 2022, alongside increases for food (6.0%) and rent (7.1%), with medical care unchanged (9.7%) and college education slightly lower (9.0%). In the labor market, one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations edged down to 2.4%, while the mean probability the unemployment rate will be higher in one year rose to 43.5%, the highest since April 2025; perceived job-loss risk increased to 14.4% and the probability of finding a job if displaced rose to 45.9%. Median expected household income growth was unchanged at 2.9% and expected spending growth increased to 5.1%, with reported credit access improving versus a year ago but expectations for future availability slightly worsening; the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment increased to 12.3% and the perceived probability that stock prices will be higher in 12 months fell to 36.3%. The survey was fielded from March 2 through March 31, 2026.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2026-04-07
Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations showing one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.4% and gas price expectations jumping to 9.4%
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that in March 2026 households raised one-year and three-year inflation expectations, alongside higher expected gas, food and rent price growth, while five-year expectations were unchanged and inflation uncertainty increased. The survey also showed weaker earnings growth expectations, higher perceived unemployment and job-loss risks, rising expected household spending, slightly worsening expectations for future credit availability, and a higher perceived probability of missing minimum debt payments.