In a public lecture published by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Monetary Policy Board member Carolyn Hewson set out how the Board forms monetary policy decisions under uncertainty. She said the RBA’s dual mandate of low and stable inflation and a high level of employment should be viewed as complementary over time, not as competing objectives, and that policy judgements are formed by combining staff analysis, financial market signals, direct intelligence from businesses and communities, and debate across the Bank. In the same speech, she said the current conflict in the Middle East is lifting inflation through higher energy prices, but its economic effects should be more limited than during the oil shocks of the 1970s because Australia is less oil intensive and operates within a stronger monetary and regulatory framework. Hewson said the Board assesses financial conditions through short-term rate expectations, the yield curve, corporate bond spreads, equity markets, the exchange rate, bank funding costs, lending rates and credit growth, alongside the distributional effects of rate changes on household cash flows. These indicators are used to judge whether policy is expansionary, neutral or restrictive, but are not treated as decisive in isolation. She said the RBA also tests its assumptions through its business and community liaison program and through a wider range of internal staff perspectives. On the Middle East shock, she said disruption to regional energy production and shipping has pushed up global prices for oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilisers and added to inflation pressures in Australia. Based on current staff analysis, oil prices are expected to weigh only moderately on economic activity, while the hit to household real incomes is modest on average but uneven, and the Board is watching for second-round effects on inflation expectations and wage bargaining.
Reserve Bank of Australia2026-05-27
Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board member outlines monetary policy judgement amid Middle East energy shock
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Carolyn Hewson outlined how the Monetary Policy Board makes decisions under uncertainty, stressing that its dual mandate of low, stable inflation and high employment is complementary over time. Policy judgements draw on staff analysis, financial market indicators, business and community liaison, and internal debate. The Board uses a broad set of financial conditions indicators to assess whether policy is expansionary, neutral or restrictive, without relying on any single measure. Hewson said the current Middle East conflict is lifting inflation via higher energy prices but is expected to have a more limited impact on activity than past oil shocks, with a modest, uneven hit to household real incomes and ongoing monitoring of second-round effects.