The European Central Bank published staff analysis of the recent US tariff increases, estimating their impact on exporters’ prices for goods delivered to the United States and on US import volumes. The analysis finds that exporters are absorbing only a small fraction of higher tariff costs, with the burden falling mostly on US firms and consumers and only around 5% borne by foreign firms. From January to November 2025, the announced statutory effective tariff rate rose from 3% to over 18%, while unit values of US goods imports reported net of tariffs have been slightly negative since April and import volumes have declined sharply. Estimated average pass-through to net-of-tariff unit values is 0.95, implying a 10% tariff increase is associated with a 9.5% rise in prices, with lower pass-through in some sectors and no significant differences across major trading partners. Import volumes show a large aggregate elasticity of -3.7, while product categories still traded under tariffs have an elasticity of -0.43, indicating much of the adjustment is linked to products no longer imported. In the automotive sector, results point to a shift in US sourcing away from China and the EU towards Canada and Mexico, while EU and Japan exports of tariffed cars show both falling unit values and sharply lower volumes. The ECB estimates that consumers currently bear around one-third of tariff-related costs along the pricing chain, and cites survey evidence suggesting pass-through to consumers could rise to over half if tariffs remain in place for longer, with US firms absorbing around 40% in the longer term.
European Central Bank 2026-03-30
European Central Bank research finds US tariff increases are largely passed through to US firms and consumers with exporters bearing about 5% of costs
The European Central Bank published staff analysis of recent United States tariff increases, finding exporters absorb only a small share of higher tariff costs, with most of the burden borne by U.S. firms and consumers and only around 5% by foreign firms. The study estimates high pass-through of tariffs to import prices and a large negative elasticity of import volumes, with much of the adjustment driven by products no longer imported and evidence of sourcing shifts in the automotive sector away from China and the EU towards Canada and Mexico. The ECB estimates consumers currently bear about one-third of tariff-related costs, potentially rising to over half if tariffs persist, while U.S. firms would absorb around 40% in the longer term.