The Central Bank of Ecuador has updated its macroeconomic projections, raising its 2026 growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.5% in its April estimate. Household consumption is projected to rise 3.3%, gross fixed capital formation 5.8% and exports of goods and services 3.8%. Average growth for 2027-2030 is forecast at 2.5%, driven mainly by non-oil activities, consumption, investment and exports. The current account is expected to record a USD 4.587 billion surplus in 2026, while private-sector credit and deposits are projected to grow 10.9% and 11.5%, respectively. Average annual inflation is forecast at 2.1%, with international reserves reaching about USD 11.239 billion by year-end. The update also models El Niño scenarios rather than predicting the event: a moderate episode could reduce 2027 growth by 0.5 percentage points relative to the baseline, while a severe episode could lower it by 1.4 percentage points through effects on production, exports and prices.
2026-09-15Central Bank of Ecuador
Central Bank of Ecuador raises 2026 growth forecast to 2.7% and assesses El Niño risks
The Central Bank of Ecuador raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.7% from 2.5%, supported by stronger consumption, investment and exports. Its scenario analysis indicates that El Niño could reduce 2027 growth by 0.5 percentage points under a moderate event or 1.4 percentage points under a severe event.