National Bank of Ukraine approves 2026 bank stress testing methodology for 26 banks covering over 90% of sector assets

The National Bank of Ukraine has approved the methodology for the 2026 bank stress test, the third stage of its bank resilience assessment, setting out how it will evaluate banks’ performance and capital adequacy under a baseline macroeconomic scenario and an unlikely but plausible adverse scenario. The exercise will cover 26 banks holding more than 90% of banking sector assets and will be used to determine potential losses at both bank and system level, and the capital needed to absorb those losses if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. The test will assess banks’ projected indicators over a three-year horizon. The baseline scenario uses the National Bank of Ukraine’s macroeconomic forecast indicators and consensus exchange rate forecasts, while the adverse scenario is not a forecast and is used only for stress testing. For 2026 it assumes a deep and prolonged crisis, including real GDP declines in the first two years, higher inflation, rising interest rates and banking sector funding costs, weaker household and corporate finances, higher bank credit risk, and a gradual recovery in the third year. The methodology covers credit, interest rate, foreign-exchange and operational risks, with default events assessed individually for large corporate borrowers and on a portfolio basis for other loans. Banks whose necessary capital adequacy ratios under the resilience assessment exceed regulatory requirements will have to prepare a capitalization or restructuring plan to ensure compliance with the required ratios. Bank-specific results of the resilience assessment will be published by the end of 2026. The stress-testing approaches are set out in Board Decision No. 134, which took effect on 1 May 2026.