The National Bank of Ukraine published an account of its Sept. 16 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, at which seven of the 10 members present supported raising the key policy rate from 15.5% to 16%. The majority cited persistent underlying price pressures and a shift in inflation risks to the upside, while three members favored holding the rate because core inflation had stabilized and economic activity was weakening. Headline and core inflation both stood at 8.1% year over year in August. Higher fuel prices, revised administered tariffs, Russian attacks on production, logistics and energy infrastructure, elevated inflation expectations and reduced external financing increased inflation and foreign exchange market risks. Supporters of a rate increase also argued that tighter policy would bolster demand for hryvnia assets and protect reserves. Members favoring no change pointed to weaker gross domestic product, retail sales and labor demand, as well as the potential disinflationary effects of lower consumer demand and increased domestic food supply caused by Black Sea export disruption. Seven members expected a 16% rate to remain sufficient through the coming months, allowing cautious easing in 2027. Two saw scope for at least one additional increase after the October macroeconomic forecast revision, while one considered rate cuts possible by the end of 2026. Members also discussed making auction volumes for three-month certificates of deposit more predictable to preserve banks’ incentives to compete for household term deposits.
Source: 2026-09-28National Bank of Ukraine
National Bank of Ukraine Monetary Policy Committee majority backs raising key policy rate to 16%
Seven of the 10 National Bank of Ukraine Monetary Policy Committee members present backed raising the key policy rate from 15.5% to 16% as inflation risks shifted upward. Three favored holding the rate amid weakening economic activity, while views on the subsequent path ranged from another increase to possible easing by the end of 2026.