The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has published its 2026–2027 research agenda, setting priorities for examining monetary policy effectiveness, climate risks and the interaction between fiscal policy and economic growth. The agenda also addresses competition and inclusion in financial services, alongside the implications of stablecoins pegged to foreign currencies for monetary sovereignty and financial stability. Monetary policy research will examine how communication anchors inflation expectations, how inflation drivers vary across sectors and how operational arrangements affect policy transmission. This includes assessing the effects of the 2022 transition to a surplus-based monetary policy implementation framework, balance sheet management and coordination with macroprudential policy. Climate research will investigate how physical shocks and the transition away from fossil fuels affect inflation, investment and financial stability, including banks’ liquidity during extreme weather events and risks transmitted through sovereign bond markets. Work on fiscal and monetary policy interactions will assess how government borrowing, labour market conditions and inequality affect policy transmission and the scope for economic growth. Financial services research will examine competition at a more granular market level, barriers to entry and expansion, and the effects of digital business models on consumers. A particular focus is the role of nonbank payment providers and the data needed to support proportionate regulation based on activities. Although stablecoin risks to South Africa’s financial stability currently appear limited, dedicated research will assess potential spillovers from global shocks and the consequences of wider adoption for domestic market liquidity, monetary policy transmission and currency substitution. It will also examine payment benefits and risks, including the potential circumvention of capital flow management measures, and the adequacy of existing regulatory frameworks.

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