The Central Bank of the Philippines published an external sector outlook projecting the overall balance of payments to shift from a modest surplus in 2024 to deficits in 2025 and 2026, mainly reflecting a sustained current account shortfall alongside moderating foreign direct investment and external loan inflows amid global policy uncertainty. The projected current account gap is driven by a continued trade-in-goods deficit and weaker services receipts. Goods trade is expected to remain soft due to weaker global demand, easing commodity prices and slower domestic growth momentum, with a temporary boost to merchandise exports in 2025 from frontloading ahead of anticipated US tariffs in the first half of the year; logistical bottlenecks, skills mismatches and high input costs are also cited as constraints on export competitiveness. Services export growth is expected to moderate as costs rise relative to competitors in business process outsourcing and tourism, while overseas Filipino remittances are projected to remain resilient, with an impending US tax on remittances expected to have minimal impact. Gross international reserves are projected to remain adequate, and early warning system results on currency crisis and debt sustainability indicate resilience to external shocks as of Q4 2025, supported by manageable external financing needs and ample reserves. The central bank indicated it will continue monitoring emerging external sector risks while engaging with external stakeholders.

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