The Central Bank of Estonia published an assessment of Statistics Estonia data showing annual consumer price inflation of 2.3% in June. It said the main upward pressure came from energy and fuels, including higher electricity prices than a year earlier, while food prices, which make up the largest share of the consumer basket, fell by more than 1.5% on a broad basis. Consumer prices also declined 0.5% from the previous month, which the bank described as a large drop for June by historical standards. The bank linked the lower annual rate partly to a high base from last year, when package holidays and accommodation prices rose sharply and merchants may also have raised prices ahead of the July value-added tax increase. This year, holidays were 9% cheaper than a year earlier and accommodation was 20% cheaper. The monthly fall in prices reflected cheaper motor fuels and food, with petrol 5.5% cheaper than in May and diesel 9% cheaper after Middle East oil product exports disrupted by the war in Iran resumed from mid-June and oil prices fell sharply. The bank said annual inflation rates in the coming months will be similar to or below the June rate as the VAT pass-through from last year continues to drop out of the comparison base. It added that inflation excluding tax changes has been around or below the European average since the end of last year, and it expects inflation for 2026 as a whole to be 3.4%.