The United States Council of Economic Advisers published a research paper, “Artificial Intelligence and the Great Divergence,” examining whether artificial intelligence could generate cross-country growth differences comparable to those seen during the Industrial Revolution. The paper focuses on currently observable data on AI investment, performance, and adoption, noting that clear leaders are emerging across countries. The paper reviews analyses of AI-led economic growth and discusses estimates of AI’s potential effects on gross domestic product and the labor force, while emphasizing uncertainty and the need for ongoing monitoring. It then sets out metrics for tracking AI’s rapid evolution, describing some indicators as doubling every few months, compares how different countries are performing against these measures, and closes with a review of actions the Trump administration is taking to support United States AI leadership, including innovation, infrastructure development, deregulation, and technology exports.
Council of Economic Advisers 2026-01-21
United States Council of Economic Advisers publishes paper on AI leadership metrics and the risk of a new Great Divergence
The United States Council of Economic Advisers released a paper titled “Artificial Intelligence and the Great Divergence,” exploring AI's potential to create cross-country growth disparities akin to the Industrial Revolution, highlighting emerging leaders in AI investment and adoption. It discusses AI's impact on GDP and labor, underscores uncertainty, and outlines metrics for tracking AI's evolution, alongside reviewing U.S. policy actions to bolster AI leadership.