The Czech Ministry of Finance published its January 2026 Macroeconomic Forecast, expecting Czech economic growth to slow slightly to 2.4% in 2026 after an estimated 2.5% expansion in 2025, with growth continuing to be driven by domestic demand and net exports remaining a drag. Average inflation is forecast to ease to 2.1% in 2026 from 2.5% in 2025. The forecast notes real GDP growth accelerated to 2.8% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, driven almost exclusively by domestic demand. For 2025, stronger household consumption is linked to rising real incomes and a lower savings rate, while investment is described as led by public investment supported by the Recovery and Resilience Facility and European Structural and Investment Funds, with inventories and government consumption also contributing positively; higher imports are expected to have weighed on the foreign trade balance. For 2026, household consumption is expected to keep growing and corporate investment to revive, but with imports rising and exports constrained by trade barriers and weak export orders. On inflation, lower energy prices and the move of financing the fee for supported energy sources fully to the state budget are cited as disinflationary factors alongside monetary policy, a lower USD oil price assumption and a stronger koruna, while wage growth and persistent services price dynamics are flagged as pro-inflationary. The unemployment rate is projected at 2.8% in both 2025 and 2026, the current account surplus is forecast to narrow from 0.6% of GDP in 2025 to 0.3% in 2026, and the general government deficit is estimated at 2% of GDP in 2025 with debt expected to reach 44.6% of GDP. An English version of the January forecast is scheduled for release in the week of 26 January, and the ministry reiterates that the Macroeconomic Forecast is published quarterly.

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