The European Central Bank updated its wage tracker with collective bargaining agreements signed through the first week of July and extended its forward-looking horizon to March 2027. The headline measure, which smooths one-off payments, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027, leaving the assessment for 2026 broadly unchanged from the June release. The measures with unsmoothed one-off payments and excluding such payments both show growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027. The headline measure rises from 1.8% in the first quarter of 2026 to 2.6% in the second half as the mechanical effect of large one-off payments made in 2024 fades. Employee coverage is 44.3% for 2026 and falls to 28.4% for the first quarter of 2027. The forward-looking figures are subject to revision and do not constitute a forecast because they capture only active agreements currently available. The ECB plans to extend the horizon to the second quarter of 2027 in its September 2026 data release.
European Central Bank2026-07-29
European Central Bank extends wage tracker to March 2027, signals stable negotiated wage pressures
The European Central Bank’s updated wage tracker indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in the first quarter of 2027, broadly maintaining its previous assessment. The forward-looking horizon now extends to March 2027 and is due to reach the second quarter of 2027 in September, although the figures remain subject to revision and are not a forecast.