National Bank of Serbia governor underscores energy-shock measures and continued cautious monetary policy at IMF EU outlook presentation

The National Bank of Serbia published an introductory speech by Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković at an event presenting International Monetary Fund (IMF) analysis on the European Union economy and global developments, highlighting a deteriorating external backdrop and reiterating the need for continued prudent monetary and fiscal policy in Serbia. She pointed to Serbia’s immediate response to current energy-market shocks through a set of measures intended to protect households and the economy. In outlining the macro context, Tabaković referenced IMF estimates that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices could raise global inflation by 40 basis points and reduce global output by 0.1% to 0.2%, and noted the European Central Bank’s additional oil-price scenarios in its latest projections. She also cited IMF work suggesting EU-level and national reforms to fully realise the single market could lift EU productivity by around 20% and, over time, increase GDP per capita by about 35%. For Serbia, she quoted the IMF Executive Board’s assessment of “well-thought-out” macroeconomic policies supported by high foreign exchange reserves, high government deposits, and a resilient, well-capitalised banking sector, and noted that an October regional report assessed Serbia’s policy rate as aligned with the Taylor rule recommendation and that public debt is below 45% of GDP, contrasting with IMF warnings that European public debt could approach 130% of GDP by 2040 without structural reforms and fiscal consolidation. The speech introduced the IMF’s euro area Head of Mission, Mr. Nabar, who was due to present the global outlook and EU policy assessment, alongside the IMF’s resident representative in Serbia, Lev Ratnovski.