The Monetary Policy Committee of the South African Reserve Bank on 26 March 2026 kept the policy (repo) rate unchanged at 6.75 %, judging the existing moderately restrictive stance adequate as the Middle-East conflict lifts global energy prices and raises upside risks to inflation while the domestic recovery remains tentative. Following a 25 bp reduction in November 2025, the rate was held in January 2026 and remains on hold now. The bank’s Quarterly Projection Model envisages a longer period without cuts, and the committee reiterated that decisions will be taken meeting by meeting. Headline and core CPI were both 3.0 % in February—exactly at the 3 % target—but headline is forecast to climb toward 4 % in the short term, propelled by fuel inflation of about 18 % in Q2, before easing back to 3 % late next year; 2025 GDP expanded by 1.1 % and is still projected to edge up to roughly 2 % in coming years, though the conflict clouds the outlook. Inflation expectations had been drifting lower before hostilities erupted, but market-based gauges have since firmed. The rand has softened amid global risk aversion and surging oil, gas and fertiliser prices, yet market conditions remain orderly. With major central banks also pausing as they assess the shock’s implications, the SARB affirmed its commitment to the 3 % inflation goal and signalled readiness to raise rates if second-round price pressures emerge, while postponing previously anticipated easing.
South African Reserve Bank 2026-03-26
SARB keeps repo rate unchanged at 6.75%
The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee on 26 March 2026 left the repo rate at 6.75 %, extending its post-November pause as the Middle-East conflict boosts global energy prices and inflation risks while domestic growth remains hesitant. With February headline and core CPI at the 3 % target but seen nearing 4 % short term, the bank’s model points to a longer hold and policymakers warned they stand ready to tighten if second-round pressures arise.