The European Central Bank published Working Paper No 3037 analysing whether Pope John Paul II’s foreign pastoral visits had measurable macroeconomic effects, finding that visited countries’ exports rose disproportionately toward trading partners with larger Catholic population shares in the years following a visit. The paper notes that it does not represent the views of the ECB. Using bilateral trade data and the Pope’s first visits to 129 countries, the estimates imply that exports to a trading partner at the 75th percentile of Catholic population share (54.3%) versus the 25th percentile (1.1%) were 17.5% to 27.2% higher during years 1 to 5 after a visit, with the effect statistically significant in years 2 to 5. The export response is stronger for visited countries that are poorer (non-OECD), have relatively few Catholics, and have weaker pre-existing trade links, and it does not extend to imports. Falsification tests find no similar pattern around other high-profile events such as visits by US Presidents or Queen Elizabeth II or hosting major global sports events, while textual analysis of 633 speeches suggests the mechanism is more consistent with raising a country’s profile than with explicit economic messaging.
European Central Bank 2025-03-13
European Central Bank working paper finds Pope John Paul II pastoral visits lifted exports to more Catholic trading partners by up to 27%
The European Central Bank's Working Paper No 3037 examines the macroeconomic impact of Pope John Paul II’s foreign visits, finding that exports from visited countries increased significantly towards trading partners with larger Catholic populations. Exports were 17.5% to 27.2% higher in countries with a 75th percentile Catholic population share compared to those at the 25th percentile, especially in poorer, non-OECD countries with weaker trade links. The findings suggest the effect is due to increased country profile rather than explicit economic messaging.