Sveriges Riksbank has published an Economic Commentary analysing Sweden’s trade links with China and what changes in China–United States trade patterns could mean for Sweden in the short term. The analysis concludes that Chinese exports could be redirected relatively easily to Sweden and the European Union (EU) via existing trade networks, but that the overall impact on Swedish inflation is expected to be small while competitive pressure could rise for some Swedish exporters. Using traditional trade statistics, OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data and Eurostat’s Figaro input-output tables, the Commentary finds that Sweden’s imports from China are somewhat larger than standard foreign trade figures suggest and partly arrive via other countries, mainly EU states. Sweden and the United States import similar baskets of Chinese goods, with an import similarity measure of just over 72% in 2024 and particularly high overlap for intermediate goods, implying scope for lower import prices and some downward pressure on producer and consumer prices (notably in textiles and apparel). However, China’s import weight for Sweden remains relatively small, so inflation effects are judged limited, with euro area estimates of at most 0.15–0.2 percentage points lower inflation over the next two years described as an upper bound for Sweden given Sweden’s lower exposure. On competitiveness, the overlap between Swedish and Chinese exports has increased over time, and a larger supply of Chinese goods in the EU (Sweden’s largest export market) is expected to intensify competition mainly in specific segments such as steel, telecommunications equipment, machinery and some plastic goods, while many of the largest categories potentially diverted to Europe are not produced in Sweden to any great extent.
Riksbank 2025-09-08
Sveriges Riksbank research finds US tariffs could redirect more Chinese goods to Sweden with limited inflation effects but higher competition for some exporters
Sveriges Riksbank's Economic Commentary examines Sweden's trade links with China and potential impacts from China–U.S. trade shifts. Chinese exports could redirect to Sweden and the EU, but the overall impact on Swedish inflation is expected to be minimal, despite increased competitive pressure for some Swedish exporters. Sweden's imports from China are larger than standard figures suggest, with significant overlap in imported goods with the U.S., potentially leading to lower import prices and limited inflation effects.