The United States Federal Reserve Board published a FEDS Note by Board staff introducing a monthly series of real-time estimates of global longer-run real neutral interest rates, intended as a reference point for where policy rates may settle at the end of tightening or easing cycles. The note emphasises the estimates are the authors’ own and should not be regarded as an official Federal Reserve view. The release covers 11 advanced economies (United States, euro area, United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, Denmark, Norway, New Zealand, Sweden, and Switzerland) and includes a decomposition of neutral-rate changes into drivers such as safe asset supply and demand, trends in convenience yield and productivity growth, working-age share, global spillovers from productivity and demographic developments, and other factors. Semi-annual data are available from 1960:H1 to 2025:H1, with additional periods to be added as data arrive, and the series may be delayed, revised, or subject to methodological change without notice. To support timelier updates, the productivity-growth inputs are spliced with national statistics office series when newer data are available, and trend estimates for productivity growth and convenience yield are produced by forecasting these variables up to four years ahead using a rolling 25-year window before applying the Hodrick-Prescott filter, which may result in revisions to the full historical neutral-rate series each month. Updates are intended to be posted sometime after 10:00 a.m. on the fourth business day of each month, and the current implementation continues to use elasticities from Ferreira and Shousha (2023) until the model is re-estimated.

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