In an explainer on the war-driven rise in oil prices, the Dutch Central Bank said the roughly 80 percent increase in crude prices over recent months is an oil supply shock, but one with smaller economic effects than earlier energy crises. It attributes that to the lower real economic burden of a given nominal oil price than in the 1970s and to the Netherlands being about 70 percent less dependent on oil for producing goods and services. The bank links the latest shock to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to energy production facilities in the Middle East. It said the impact is still visible for households and businesses through higher fuel and transport costs, possible increases in product prices, and cost pass-through by companies, with energy-intensive sectors and diesel-dependent transport remaining particularly exposed. Oil supply uncertainty and price volatility also remain risks, especially where switching to other energy sources is difficult. Given that uncertainty, the central bank is using multiple scenarios to assess the economic effects of high oil prices.
De Nederlandsche Bank2026-05-27
Dutch Central Bank says 80 percent oil price surge has smaller economic impact than past oil crises
De Nederlandsche Bank said the roughly 80 percent rise in crude prices constitutes an oil supply shock, but with smaller macroeconomic effects than past energy crises due to the lower real oil burden and reduced oil dependence of the Dutch economy. It links the shock to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Middle Eastern production, noting higher fuel and transport costs and heightened risks for energy-intensive and diesel-dependent sectors. The central bank is using multiple scenarios to assess the impact of sustained high oil prices and ongoing supply uncertainty.