The Central Bank of Russia published the first draft of its monetary policy guidelines for the next three years, maintaining its 4% inflation target and floating exchange rate framework. Inflation is expected to remain significantly above target in 2026 before returning to 4% in 2027, requiring the key rate to average 13.7–14% over the remainder of 2026 and 10.5–12.5% in 2027. The rate is projected to return to its estimated neutral range of 7.5–8.5% in 2029. The baseline scenario, previously released after the July key rate meeting, forecasts 2026 gross domestic product growth of 0–1%, following a 0.5 percentage-point downgrade, and growth of 1.5–2.5% annually thereafter. It assumes the structural primary deficit will decline from 2% of GDP in 2026 to zero from 2029. Alternative scenarios contemplate higher rates under persistent fiscal and supply pressures, faster easing if productivity growth exceeds expectations, and a hypothetical global financial crisis comparable to 2007–2008. The central bank will update its fiscal assumptions at its October key rate meeting after the government submits its draft three-year federal budget to the State Duma.
2026-08-31Central Bank of Russia
Central Bank of Russia publishes draft three-year monetary policy guidelines projecting 4% inflation in 2027
The Central Bank of Russia’s draft three-year monetary policy guidelines project inflation returning to its 4% target in 2027. The baseline requires an average key rate of 13.7–14% for the rest of 2026 and 10.5–12.5% in 2027, with the rate returning to its neutral range in 2029.