The Bank of France has published interim macroeconomic projections that lower its 2026 growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 0.4%, following weak activity in the first half. Growth is projected to recover to 0.9% in 2027 and 1.2% in 2028. Headline inflation is forecast at 2.3% in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downward revision, before falling to 1.9% in 2027 and 1.6% in 2028. Weak consumption and private investment are expected to constrain activity in 2026, while tighter financing conditions and fiscal policy uncertainty continue to weigh on capital spending. The unemployment outlook has been raised across the projection horizon, with the rate expected to reach 8.4% at end-2026 before declining to 8.0% in 2028. Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside because of the Middle East conflict and energy prices. Under the severe alternative scenario, inflation would reach 4.2% and the economy would contract by 0.2% in 2027.
2026-09-15Bank of France
Bank of France lowers 2026 growth forecast to 0.4%, projects inflation at 2.3%
The Bank of France cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4% and projects a recovery to 0.9% in 2027 and 1.2% in 2028. Inflation is expected to average 2.3% in 2026 before falling below 2%, while unemployment is forecast to reach 8.4% at year-end. Middle East conflict and energy prices remain the main downside risks.