The Bank of Finland’s Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) published its 2025–2027 forecast for Russia, projecting that annual GDP growth will slow sharply to around 2% in 2025 and about 1% in 2026 and 2027. The forecast links Russia’s recent growth to surging government spending on the war in Ukraine, which it expects to rise further in 2025, while noting that production is already stretched to capacity. It also points to a worsening labour shortage, accelerating inflation and sanctions that limit foreign trade. BOFIT does not anticipate an immediate full-blown economic crisis, but flags exceptionally high risks to Russia’s economic outlook as long as it continues the war, even as it judges Russia currently has sufficient economic resources to sustain it and that the costs are rising.
Bank of Finland 2025-03-24
Bank of Finland’s BOFIT projects Russia’s GDP growth to slow to around 2% in 2025 and 1% in 2026–27
BOFIT forecasts Russia's GDP growth slowing to 2% in 2025 and 1% in 2026-2027. Growth is attributed to increased government spending on the Ukraine war, with further spending expected in 2025. The report highlights production capacity limits, labor shortages, inflation, and trade sanctions. BOFIT notes high economic risks for Russia due to the war, despite sufficient resources to sustain current conditions.