National Bank of Belgium article highlights broad-based slowdown in private consumption and sharper deceleration in Wallonia

The National Bank of Belgium has published an article reviewing the recent loss of momentum in Belgian private consumption, describing it as broad-based across goods and services and shaped by both structural and cyclical factors. The analysis points in particular to weaker spending on transport and housing-related items, while noting that some structural shifts, including improved fuel and energy efficiency and changing mobility habits, may reduce consumption volumes without necessarily lowering household welfare. The article finds that regional differences have been marked, with the slowdown in household consumption per capita especially pronounced in the Walloon Region. It also says consumption growth remains closely tied to income developments, tracking wages and salaries more closely than overall purchasing power. The saving rate has acted as a buffer, first declining mainly among higher-income households amid weaker property income in a low interest rate environment, and later falling more broadly across income groups as wage moderation policies weighed on income growth. The National Bank of Belgium also links weaker momentum to the lasting effects of recent shocks. Although private consumption rebounded strongly after the Covid-19 lockdowns, aggregate consumption has not fully returned to its pre-pandemic trend. Services consumption and durable goods purchases have recovered to trend levels, but semi- and non-durable goods consumption has not.