The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has published a working paper introducing a spatial general equilibrium model that estimates how local climate damage spreads through trade, migration and production networks. Relative to a baseline in which climate conditions remain at historical levels, the model projects global GDP per capita losses of 3% by 2050 and 6.3% by 2100 under the current policy scenario SSP2-4.5. Losses rise to about 6% and 18%, respectively, under the high emissions scenario SSP5-8.5. For OECD countries, the corresponding losses reach 1.7% and 3.1% under the current policy scenario and 2.6% and 9% under the high emissions scenario. The model covers 927 regions in 186 countries and captures damage from heat stress, deteriorating agricultural conditions, flooding and sea level rise. Heat stress is the largest source of losses globally, followed by changes in agricultural productivity, while lower latitude and historically exposed economies face the greatest damage. Production networks amplify global GDP per capita losses by about 78%, but adjustments through trade and labour mobility reduce projected global losses in 2100 by roughly 8% and narrow regional dispersion by about 22%. The estimates remain highly uncertain and exclude several hazards, including storms, wildfires and landslides, as well as planned defensive adaptation investments.
2026-09-04OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development working paper estimates climate change could cut global GDP per capita by 6.3% to 18% by 2100
An OECD working paper estimates that climate change could reduce global GDP per capita by 6.3% under a current policy scenario and 18% under a high emissions scenario by 2100. Heat stress drives most losses, while production networks amplify damage. Trade and labour mobility reduce global losses but redistribute impacts across regions.