The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan published a working paper on measuring Uzbekistan’s natural rate of interest, presenting model-based estimates that average around 4.0%. The research was conducted by I. Inkhomiddinov from the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Department under the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs’ Bilateral Assistance and Capacity Building Program for Central Banks. The analysis used three approaches: the Holston-Laubach-Williams (HLW) model, a modified HLW model, and the Central Bank’s Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). The HLW and modified HLW models estimated the natural rate at 4.5% and 4.1% respectively, while the QPM estimate was 3.4%; the working paper reports an overall average of around 4.0% across the three models.
Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan 2025-02-26
Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan publishes working paper estimating the natural rate of interest around 4 percent
The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan released a working paper estimating the country's natural rate of interest at approximately 4.0%. The analysis, conducted by I. Inkhomiddinov, utilized the Holston-Laubach-Williams model, a modified version, and the Central Bank’s Quarterly Projection Model, yielding estimates of 4.5%, 4.1%, and 3.4% respectively.